Unconventional Wisdom

Breathtaking Ego

I guess you have to have a pretty big ego to get elected and re-elected President. But wow!

Former President Clinton on Larry King Live last night, asked if he'd like to be NFL Commissioner: "No. It would be fun. I'm a big football fan and I have a very high regard for a couple of the owners that I've known for many years. But I don't think I could pursue my mission. You know my mission is to do what I'm doing. I should be out here solving problems, saving lives, helping people feel the future."

Well, then.

Mellow Yellow?

This is disturbing. From AP: "A convenience store clerk pleaded no contest Thursday to felony charges of tampering after he urinated in a bottle of soda that was later drunk by a customer who became violently sick."

More Florida Numbers

This one's similar to all the other polls, and similarly ignored by those who mistakenly claim that Giuliani won't run and that Mark Warner can win.   From the North Florida Public Opinion Research Library, conducted 2/20-3/13.

Republicans

Giuliani  33%
McCain  22%
Gingrich  8%
Allen  2%

Democrats

Clinton  45%
Kerry  14%
Edwards  10%
Biden  3%
Warner  2%
Feingold  2%

General Election

McCain  47%
Clinton  41%

McCain  50%
Warner  25%

Giuliani  47%
Clinton  41%

Arg, that Conventional Wisdom!

So much writing about John McCain -- and to a lesser extent, Rudy Giuliani -- this week.  All to the effect of, "Too bad the guys who can win the general election are the ones who can't make it through a Republican primary."

This would seem a good time to bring up the track record of the two parties since 1980.  The Republicans have nominated Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, and George W. Bush.  Of the four men, three of them made it through the primary and won the general election at least once.

The Democrats have nominated Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry.  Of the six men, only two were able to make it through the primary and win the general election.

Republicans know how to pick winners and have been willing to do it.  It's not like we've been nominating Pat Buchanan, Pat Robertson, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, and Gary Bauer.  We're pragmatic.  And we win.

Here in the Heartland

I've been away for a week -- am still away -- and I haven't read a single piece of political news or commentary. Not one blog entry. And I haven't missed it.

But here in Eagle County, Colorado, the local newspaper has taken a completely unscientific online poll, asking "What is the most important issue facing Eagle County?"

Politicians and purveyors of Conventional Wisdom take note: 5% say housing. 2% say water issues. 1% say child care. But 88% -- yes, 88% -- say illegal immigration.

Take that for what its worth. I think it's worth quite a bit.

What Really Matters

I am outside of Camden, New Jersey. I am paying $1.98 for gas (full service here). This is the first time since last summer that I paid less than $2. Watch out, Bob Menendez!

Most Disingenuous Quote of the Day

Chuck Schmuer and Peter King on the Dubai Port deal, writing in USA Today:

"Our call for increased scrutiny of this deal has nothing to do with the fact that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an Arab nation."

Fools All

I'm not sure what I think about the Dubai port deal.  But I know that many of the critics are fools, even if they are right.

Today in USA Today, Chuck Schumer and Peter King write about a "company [that] is owned and operated by a country through which a number of the 9/11 hijackers traveled and al-Qaeda money was funneled."

Is he talking about Dubai?  Or the United States?

Anthrax

The anthrax in New York is accidental, according to Mayor Bloomberg:

"There's no evidence of terrorism here," Mr. Bloomberg said at a news conference at City Hall.

Sounds familiar.  Reminds me of the October 4, 2001, wire report in which Florida Lt. Gov. Frank Grogan reported that there was no evidence that the anthrax contracted by National Enquirer photographer Bob Stevens was related to terrorism.  Federal officials said the same thing.

Now You Tell Us

Charlie Cook, one of the political analysists I most respect, has come to the remarkable conclusion that Bush's popularity is linked to gas prices.  He writes about it here.  He's got research to support the claim:

To gauge what role energy prices play in Bush’s popularity, Tom Gallagher and his team of economists and analysts at the ISI Group, a firm that advises Wall Street and money managers on economics, public policy, and politics, looked at the president’s Gallup Poll job-approval ratings in relation to shifts in the monthly wholesale price of unleaded gasoline. When gasoline prices went down, they found, Bush’s approval rating tended to go up, and vice versa. Gallagher’s group found a strong correlation—0.73, which to statisticians suggests that roughly half of the fluctuation in Bush’s approval rating can be accounted for by changes in gasoline prices.

This is not news to readers of this blog (if any).  We first wrote about it here, in March 2004, and have been harping on it ever since.  Gas prices explain everything.  They explain the President's approval rating.  They explain people's views on "the economy."  They explain the right track / wrong track number.  Unfortunately, they can't be controlled.  But all we need is a little luck.  Last night, outside of Charlottesville, Virginia, I paid $2.09 per gallon.  That's the lowest in a long time.